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You can use a Program, Evaluation, and Review Technique (PERT) analysis (PERT analysis: PERT [Program, Evaluation, and Review Technique] analysis is a process by which you evaluate a probable outcome based on three scenarios: best-case, expected-case, and worst-case.) to determine a realistic duration for your tasks, by taking into account optimistic (optimistic duration: The best-case possibility for the total span of active working time expected for a task, that is, the amount of time from the optimistic start to optimistic finish of a task.), expected (expected duration: The total span of active working time expected for a task, that is, the amount of time from the expected start to the expected finish of a task.), and pessimistic (pessimistic duration: The worst-case possibility for the total span of active working time expected for a task, that is, the amount of time from the pessimistic start to pessimistic finish of a task.) duration estimates.

In this demo, I provide optimistic, expected, and pessimistic durations for my tasks, and then calculate the duration using the PERT Analysis tools in Microsoft Office Project 2007. I also change the default PERT weights to values that more accurately represent my estimates, and then recalculate the durations.

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